Xmas in January

I sent out a FIOA request and found something of a surprise, I am just getting ready to look it over. It's called "Traffic and Revenue Estimate" for 183 and 71 on the East side of Austin. It was just finished last month (12/07). CTRMA paid URS to create it. I'll let you know what I find right here on this blog. IT'S LOOKING JUICY!

URS has produced inaccurate forecasts for nearly a half-dozen toll road projects in Florida. In some cases, the roads drew only half the cars URS predicted. One of those, the Suncoast Parkway, was projected to make $70 million; instead, it produced just $14 million. URS predicted the Osceola would bring in around $9.4 million in tolls every year. It Instead, brought in less than $6 million annually and could end up going $1 billion or more over its original $150 million budget.

Forbes, in 9/3/01, offered the following scathing statement,

"It has become painfully clear to bondholders and politicians that many of the public toll-supported projects built in the past decade, the majority blessed by URS and its ilk, have become financial albatrosses."

Standard and Poor's bond analysts, after reviewing forecasting case studies for years, have concluded

"Optimism bias remains a consistent feature of toll road traffic forecasting."

If you'd like to get the 40 page doc, just email me and I'll send it no questions asked.