Toll Road Study Hires Traffic Forecaster with Fractured Crystal Ball.

I think URS might stand for "UnReliable Special people"

Councilman Brewster McCracken's 'Independent Study' of Austin's 2.2 billion toll road plan is causing many people grave concern.

The study was unanimously approved by the Austin City Council. A March 3, 2005 city resolution promised "the study is not to be delayed". Ten months have passed and the process is just getting started. People for Efficient Transportation pushed for and publicly supported the idea of an independent study, until recently.

The tollers have hijacked the study and now the tolling authority has been allowed to hire a contractor with a long history of inflated revenue projections to push fiscally irresponsible toll projects. They are stacking the deck. I believe a TRUE Independent Study is crucial, because the Austin toll plan will break new ground by privatizing and tolling most of our public expressways. With the possible additional cost of thousands of dollars a year for the average family -- the affordability of our great city is at stake.

Traditional toll roads have been brand new roads utilized as a means of raising money to pay for a whole new road. In Austin, the plan calls for tolling existing public highways to generate money for more toll roads.

With traditional toll roads, the public has a choice between the toll road and a public expressway. In contrast, Austin's 'freeway tolls' permanently take the option of a free expressways away from drivers. Austin's freeway tolls are created with primarily gas tax dollars, and politicians have stated publicly that 'the toll booths will never be removed.

The steering committee created by Brewster McCracken, who himself voted twice for the toll plan, includes Rep. Mike Krusee, Rep. Mark Strama, Commissioner Gerald Daugherty, Toll Authority's Bob Bennett, Toll Authority's Johanna Zmud, TxDOT's Bob Daigh, Austin Councilwoman Betty Dunkerly, Round Rock Councilman Joe Clifford, Wilco Commissioner Frankie Limmer and Hays County Judge Jim Powers.

That pro-toll committee will give a company called CRA direction to perform the study.

Earlier this month, McCracken's pro-toll committee allowed the tolling authority to hire URS to supply the fundamental traffic forecast numbers.

URS, has one of the most disturbing records of inflating traffic forecasts, in the industry.

URS has produced inaccurate forecasts for nearly a half-dozen toll road projects in Florida. In some cases, the roads drew only half the cars URS predicted. One of those, the Suncoast Parkway, was projected to make $70 million; instead, it produced just $14 million. URS predicted that the Parkway would take in $70 million in tolls in its first year of operation, and it produced only $7 million - a tenth of the projection. URS predicted the Osceola would bring in around $9.4 million in tolls every year. It Instead, brought in less than $6 million annually and could end up going $1 billion or more over its original $150 million budget.

Forbes, in 9/3/01, offered the following scathing statement,

"It has become painfully clear to bondholders and politicians that many of the public toll-supported projects built in the past decade, the majority blessed by URS and its ilk, have become financial albatrosses."

Standard and Poor's bond analysts, after reviewing forecasting case studies for years, have concluded

"Optimism bias remains a consistent feature of toll road traffic forecasting."

Many would agree that one of the worst boondoggles in Texas history was the Camino Colombia toll road. Camino Colombia was promised by politicians to be a 'generator of regional economic activity'.

Records show, that Governor Rick Perry's appointed board that governs TxDOT, the same group that are now pushing freeway tolls, also pushed for the Camino Colombia toll road fiasco.

URS forecasted the traffic revenue for Camino Colombia at $9 million for the first year - but it only produced $500k. That is about 6% of the URS forecast! Camino Colombia was sold auction style on the steps of the Webb County Courthouse in January 2004, with TxDOT in attendance. John Hancock Financial Services Inc. bought back its investment for $12 million at that auction. TxDOT then paid John Hancock a premium of $20 million for Camino Colombia.

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