Toll Road Study Hires Traffic Forecaster with Fractured Crystal Ball.

I think URS might stand for "UnReliable Special people"

Councilman Brewster McCracken's 'Independent Study' of Austin's 2.2 billion toll road plan is causing many people grave concern.

The study was unanimously approved by the Austin City Council. A March 3, 2005 city resolution promised "the study is not to be delayed". Ten months have passed and the process is just getting started. People for Efficient Transportation pushed for and publicly supported the idea of an independent study, until recently.

The tollers have hijacked the study and now the tolling authority has been allowed to hire a contractor with a long history of inflated revenue projections to push fiscally irresponsible toll projects. They are stacking the deck. I believe a TRUE Independent Study is crucial, because the Austin toll plan will break new ground by privatizing and tolling most of our public expressways. With the possible additional cost of thousands of dollars a year for the average family -- the affordability of our great city is at stake.

Traditional toll roads have been brand new roads utilized as a means of raising money to pay for a whole new road. In Austin, the plan calls for tolling existing public highways to generate money for more toll roads.

With traditional toll roads, the public has a choice between the toll road and a public expressway. In contrast, Austin's 'freeway tolls' permanently take the option of a free expressways away from drivers. Austin's freeway tolls are created with primarily gas tax dollars, and politicians have stated publicly that 'the toll booths will never be removed.

The steering committee created by Brewster McCracken, who himself voted twice for the toll plan, includes Rep. Mike Krusee, Rep. Mark Strama, Commissioner Gerald Daugherty, Toll Authority's Bob Bennett, Toll Authority's Johanna Zmud, TxDOT's Bob Daigh, Austin Councilwoman Betty Dunkerly, Round Rock Councilman Joe Clifford, Wilco Commissioner Frankie Limmer and Hays County Judge Jim Powers.

That pro-toll committee will give a company called CRA direction to perform the study.

Earlier this month, McCracken's pro-toll committee allowed the tolling authority to hire URS to supply the fundamental traffic forecast numbers.

URS, has one of the most disturbing records of inflating traffic forecasts, in the industry.

URS has produced inaccurate forecasts for nearly a half-dozen toll road projects in Florida. In some cases, the roads drew only half the cars URS predicted. One of those, the Suncoast Parkway, was projected to make $70 million; instead, it produced just $14 million. URS predicted that the Parkway would take in $70 million in tolls in its first year of operation, and it produced only $7 million - a tenth of the projection. URS predicted the Osceola would bring in around $9.4 million in tolls every year. It Instead, brought in less than $6 million annually and could end up going $1 billion or more over its original $150 million budget.

Forbes, in 9/3/01, offered the following scathing statement,

"It has become painfully clear to bondholders and politicians that many of the public toll-supported projects built in the past decade, the majority blessed by URS and its ilk, have become financial albatrosses."

Standard and Poor's bond analysts, after reviewing forecasting case studies for years, have concluded

"Optimism bias remains a consistent feature of toll road traffic forecasting."

Many would agree that one of the worst boondoggles in Texas history was the Camino Colombia toll road. Camino Colombia was promised by politicians to be a 'generator of regional economic activity'.

Records show, that Governor Rick Perry's appointed board that governs TxDOT, the same group that are now pushing freeway tolls, also pushed for the Camino Colombia toll road fiasco.

URS forecasted the traffic revenue for Camino Colombia at $9 million for the first year - but it only produced $500k. That is about 6% of the URS forecast! Camino Colombia was sold auction style on the steps of the Webb County Courthouse in January 2004, with TxDOT in attendance. John Hancock Financial Services Inc. bought back its investment for $12 million at that auction. TxDOT then paid John Hancock a premium of $20 million for Camino Colombia.

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More Dirty Money. More Illegal Contributions.

Wes Benedict and myself at a press conference to announce the Toll Lobby laundering lawsuit in May.

As an Texas Toll Party endorsed candidate, Wes Benedict didn't win his race for City Council this year, but he's won the hearts of many of us as he continues his legal "muckraking" work. Wes "filed a lawsuit"that continues today against the toll lobby who tricked Austin voters by laundering money into the Police PAC.

Below is a new press release he just sent out today. Thanks Wes, keep fighting for clean campaigns!
From: wesbenedict@aol.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, Austin, TX - July 18, 2005

Dunkerley Returns Over $13,000 in Illegal Contributions Other Councilmembers Found to Have Violated Charter

Austin Councilmember Betty Dunkerley has reported returning over $13,000 in illegal contributions made to her recent city council campaign. The returns were disclosed on Dunkerley's July 15 campaign finance report. The returns were made after opponent Wes Benedict complained about the illegal contributions to the city.

According to Benedict, Dunkerley accepted at least $32,835 from non-Austinites. The city charter restricts contributions to candidates from "sources other than natural persons eligible to vote in Austin" to $15,000 in the general election, plus $10,000 in the case of a runoff. This $15,000 limit is in the same section of the charter that restricts individual contributions to $100.
Benedict and his campaign treasurer, Arthur DiBianca, suspected that much of Dunkerley's large volume of contributions might be from non-Austinites. They examined her reports and compared them to Austin-area voter records. Benedict made his concerns public in April, and Dunkerley responded that she would return the excess contributions.

Benedict commented, "We had to audit Dunkerley's finances for her. If we had not done the work that the city charter requires _her_ to do, none of this money would have been returned." The city charter specifically states that candidates must determine whether contributions are legal before accepting them. After subtracting the returns, Benedict and DiBianca calculate that Dunkerley retains at least $19,760 in contributions from non-Austinites, still nearly $5,000 over the limit.

"The charter is clear," said Benedict. "You must stay within the $15,000 limit, and you must take care to determine whether the money is legal before accepting it, not after. Betty Dunkerley did neither."

DUNKERLEY NOT ALONE
Dunkerley is not the only violator. Benedict and DiBianca examined reports from the latest campaigns of the other six councilmembers, and found that most of them also violated the $15,000 limit:

In his 2003 campaign, Will Wynn accepted at least $31,040 in contributions from non-Austinites. In his 2003 campaign, Brewster McCracken accepted at least $67,300 in contributions from non-Austinites. (Note: McCracken was permitted to accept an additional $10,000 from non-Austinites because he was in a runoff election.) In his 2003 campaign, Raul Alvarez accepted at least $23,342 in contributions from non-Austinites. In his recent 2005 campaign, Lee Leffingwell accepted at least $25,500 in contributions from non-Austinites.

In her recent 2005 campaign, before the runoff period began, Jennifer Kim accepted at least $25,845 from non-Austinites. Only Danny Thomas stayed within the charter's limits in his most recent campaign.

"These discoveries are troubling," said Benedict. "In many cases these six candidates won their seats by outspending their opponents. Now we see that a lot of the money was obtained illegally." DiBianca commented, "These councilmembers had better return the excess money right away." Dunkerley's latest finance report may be found here: http://www.ci.austin.tx.us/election/downloads/bdunkerley_071505.pdf Benedict and DiBianca will provide a spreadsheet of their analyses of the candidates' contributions upon request.