BurkBlog goes into more details about the latest poll that shows Perry moving down and Strayhorn making headway:
Here are the results, with the August numbers in parentheses:
Perry 33% (41%)
Strayhorn 20% (14%)
Friedman 14% (13%)
Bell 13% (13%)
Undecided 19% (20%)
The poll shows an 8-point drop by Perry and a 6-point rise by Strayhorn. The results could be interpreted to validate pre-Labor Day assertions by the Strayhorn campaign that the inability of the Bell and Friedman camps to raise enough money to go up on TV and stay on for nine weeks would transform a four-way race into a head-to-head race by early October. If that occurs, an interesting cross-tab in the poll involves this question: "There is no runoff in the Governor's race--whoever gets the most votes wins. But, suppose there were a runoff and the candidates were Republican Rick Perry and independent Carole Strayhorn. Which would you probably vote for?" The result:
Strayhorn 42.9%
Perry 41.7%
The key to the election right now is Democratic voters. Bell's 13% represents about half of the Democratic base vote. If the missing half cares more about beating Perry than about party loyalty, the race could get very interesting....
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